Can Ty Gibbs make the NASCAR Playoffs?
Winning at least one race was pretty much essential for making the 2022 NASCAR Playoffs. Austin Dillon’s win at Daytona in the regular season finale left Ryan Blaney as the only winless driver to have a shot at the championship following the cutoff race. But things seem to be working out differently this season as it appears as though there will not be as many different victors after the 26th race on the schedule as was the case last year.
There are 16 available Playoff spots with race winners getting first dibs. Those who rank highest in points without a win will fill in the positions not taken by race winners after Daytona. It is important here to note that, at least so far this season, no driver outside the top-16 in the current NASCAR Cup Series standings has won a race so this could be a moot point.
Still, it is important to keep in mind that any new winner from outside the top-16 in points would bump a driver who might have been hoping to make the Playoffs based on their position in the standings.
A quick look at the standings will reveal that there are several drivers who reside outside the top-16 in points who have, in the past, shown the ability to win. And thus, they have shown the ability to knock some other driver or drivers out of the Playoffs.
Here is a list of the most likely to upset the proverbial apple cart over the next 10 races:
Chase Elliott: Currently 27th in the standings.
Elliott is the obvious choice to get a win among those who need one and haven’t already scored one. A snowboarding accident and a suspension that caused him to miss several races have the 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion buried deep in the points and in a “must win” predicament.
He has the potential to win every week as he has demonstrated skill on every type of track throughout his career. Further, he drivers a Chevrolet for powerful Hendrick Motorsports which definitely plays in his favor. With 10 races remaining before the field is paired down, this is the most likely “outsider” to win his way into contention.
My prediction: Elliott will make the Playoffs
Michael McDowell: Currently 19th in the standings.
It is certainly possible that McDowell could “point” his way into the Playoffs but recent performances indicate that this driver and his Front Row Motorsports team could very well be capable of doing even more than that. Of his three top-10 finishes this season, two have come in the last two races. It feels like the No. 34 Ford operation is hitting its stride at just the right time.
McDowell is good on road courses and there are two of those remaining before the cutoff and his lone Cup win came at Daytona which serves as the venue for the final regular season race. However, inconsistency is a hurdle this team will have to overcome.
My prediction: McDowell will not make the Playoffs
Daniel Suarez: Currently 17th in the standings.
Like McDowell, it is certainly possible for Suarez to make it in on points and that could be his best shot considering that his best chance for a win probably went away when the No. 99 Trackhouse Racing team couldn’t get it done at Sonoma.
Still, there are two road courses yet to go before the cut and anything can happen at Daytona.
My prediction: Suarez will make the Playoffs but on points and not a win.
A.J. Allmendinger: Currently 20th in the standings.
Allmendinger’s two Cup Series wins came at Watkins Glen and on the road course at the Indianapolis Motor Speedway. Both of those tracks will be among the 10 still to go before the cutoff. Aside from those venues, there is little chance that the No. 16 Kaulig Chevrolet can muster a Playoff rally.
That’s a lot of eggs to put in just two baskets.
My prediction: Allmendinger will not make the Playoffs.
Ty Gibbs: Currently 18th in the standings.
Of all those discussed here, Gibbs may very well be the best all around driver on all types of facilities. He showed in the NASCAR Xfinity Series that he can win just about anywhere and he showed that he is willing to do whatever it takes to get to the finish line first. There have been times this season in which he has begun to look like he is getting it in terms of being a Cup driver and other times when he hasn’t.
Add all of that he also drives for Joe Gibbs Racing which is one of the best organizations in the sport.
My prediction and perhaps the biggest surprise: Gibbs will make the Playoffs.
Austin Cindric: Currently 21st in the standings.
If Allmendinger is putting a lot of eggs in only a couple of baskets, Cindric is doing much of the same. He scored his one Cup win at Daytona and he is good on road courses so that provides the No. 2 Team Penske Ford with three chances to get in.
My prediction: Cindric will not make the Playoffs.
Aric Almirola, Austin Dillon, Erik Jones and Chase Briscoe: Each of these drivers has shown the ability to win with their current teams but there will have to be some major improvements if that is to happen within the next ten events.
My prediction: None of these drivers will make the Playoffs
Please Consider also reading:
Chase Elliott might not be the only driver in a “must win” situation
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