Chase Elliott needs to win very soon if he is to contend for a title
With there having been 10 NASCAR Cup Series winners in the 16 completed races held so far in the 2023 season, the number of available spots in the NASCAR Playoffs are quickly becoming spoken for. There are 10 remaining events to be held before the cutoff will be made to determine those 16 drivers who will compete for the championship with six spots still to be determined.
In 2022, there were 16 different winners in the first 26 races(keep in mind that Kurt Busch had won but could not compete in the Playoffs for medical reasons). Since winning a race essentially guarantees a driver’s entry into the championship competition, every new winner eliminates one of the places that might have otherwise been given to a contender who was higher up in the standings without a victory.
All of that being said, the phrase “must win situation” is beginning to be thrown around regarding certain drivers during race broadcasts, on podcasts, television shows, and general conversations about NASCAR. It is unlikely that there will be more than 16 winners when the cutoff race at Daytona International Speedway takes the checkered flag. But as stated earlier, every new winner cancels out one possibility of a non-winning points racer to make it into the Playoffs.
The name most mentioned in those “must win” scenario conversations is that of 2020 NASCAR Cup Series champion Chase Elliott because of the fact that he missed six races due to a snowboarding accident and another following a suspension. But there are others who should be concerned.
One or two poor showings combined with another slot or two being filled by a previous non-winner could leave the likes of Chris Buescher(11th), Brad Keselowski(12th), Bubba Wallace(15th) and Alex Bowman(16th) on the outside looking in.
Austin Dillon earned a Playoff spot in 2022 by winning the regular season finale at Daytona. Should someone outside the top-16 win between now and that cutoff race such as Dillon, Aric Almirola, A.J. Allmendinger or Austin Cindric, the pressure will be amped up for those mentioned above who are toward the back of the top-16 in the standings.
And of course, a win by Elliott would do the same for those already living on the edge.
One thing important to note here, though, is that no driver currently outside the top-16 has won a race to date. Last season, Dillon demonstrated that a surprise winner can turn the Playoff standings upside-down. Because of that ever looming threat, virtually all currently winless drivers are in somewhat of a “must win” situation.
NASCAR has set the schedule up in such a way that there are multiple “wild card” races among those leading into the cutoff so the chances of an unexpected winner such as a A.J. Allmendinger or Michael McDowell on the road courses at Indianapolis or Watkins Glen is a legitimate possibility. Anything could happen on the high speed venues at Atlanta and Daytona while circumstances such as pit strategy or a late race caution could upend race-long leaders and hand victory to someone otherwise not in contention.
Yes, Chase Elliott is in a must win situation. He cannot make the NASCAR Playoffs without a win between now and Daytona. But other new winners could place those depending on points in jeopardy. As a result, the driver of the Hendrick Motorsports No. 9 is not the only driver in a “must win” situation.
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