Turn 2 Blog: Daytona delivered & Who won’t survive the first cut?

*Turn 2 Blog is a regular feature on InsideCircleTrack.com. Here, site operators Michael Moats and Richard Allen take turns offering their thoughts on the NASCAR and pavement short track racing topics of the day.

Weather aside, Daytona did exactly what it was supposed to do as the site of the regular season finale, didn’t it?

Richard: The Daytona International Speedway had its summer date moved from the July 4th weekend to its current spot on the racing calendar for one reason- to provide drama and to have the NASCAR Playoffs cutoff remain in doubt until the waving of the checkered flag. Sunday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 did exactly that with Austin Dillon winning his way into the Playoffs and the final spot coming down to Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. all the way to the last lap.

There were drivers who appeared to be in position to nab that final spot all throughout the day only to be eliminated in the crashes that occurred during the race. But in the end, Dillon’s No. 3 car not only proved to be a survivor but the winner after he made a late race bump-and-run type pass on Austin Cindric to put himself in position.

Another aspect of the race that was fun to watch play out was the multiple non-Playoff contending drivers who were in contention to win the race that no one would have ever expected before the field took the green flag. Landon Cassill, Noah Gragson, B.J. McLeod, Cody Ware and David Ragan were all in the lead pack at the end of the day.

The drama was plentiful and that was what NASCAR wanted.

Michael: In our blog last week, we expected and predicted chaos. We got that and then some. The only thing we couldn’t have predicted was a rain shower in turn 1 that would have caused a crash that wiped out almost half the field.

The only track that could create more unpredictability and chaos is Talladega. Either one of these tracks serves a perfect ending for the end of the regular season. Some have suggested Daytona be the final race of the season. I think it would be unfair to determine a champion on a race that’s mostly a crap shoot.

Martin Truex Jr.’s failure to make the Playoffs was not expected

At the beginning of the season which would you have considered the least likely thing to happen- Martin Truex Jr. missing the NASCAR Playoffs or Richard Childress Racing getting both of its cars in the Playoffs?

Richard: If I had to pick which I would have guessed to be the least likely to happen, I would have said Martin Truex Jr. not making the Playoffs. This former champion is one of the most proven drivers in NASCAR and Joe Gibbs Racing always fields good cars so I would have considered him to be one of the most likely drivers to be among the 16 title contenders during the final ten races on the schedule.

While I won’t say I’m shocked that both Richard Childress Racing cars would make the Playoffs, I certainly would not have predicted that both Austin Dillon and Tyler Reddick would be among that group of sixteen. This is an organization that has always seemed to be just a step or two behind the elite teams in the sport which would not have necessarily inspired confidence.

That said though, with a new car coming on line and the unpredictability that would go along with that, there would always be the possibility of both Dillon and Reddick earning at least one win prior to the cutoff but I would have said the same thing about Truex winning at least one race.

So again, I am more surprised that Truex didn’t make it than I am that both RCR cars did.

Michael: Truex not making the Playoffs is the bigger surprise. Other than Hamlin’s spurts of being in contention for wins, JGR has been a bit off this season. Kyle Busch’s only win has been winning at Bristol when Chase Briscoe and Tyler Reddick took each other out coming to the checkered flag. Christopher Bell has shown flashes of being regular contender for wins, but mistakes have constantly derailed that actual success.

As JGR, decides on whether to retain Busch or not, their organization needs to see what they need to do to get back to where they have been. Truex missing the Playoffs needs to be a wake-up call to the organization.

Both of us predict an early Playoff exit for Austin Dillon

Which four drivers will be eliminated after the first round of the NASCAR Playoffs?

Richard: I am not going to stray too far away from the lower seeds when predicting who will be the first to be cut.

Austin Dillon enters the Playoffs with the fewest bonus points so I am going to say that Sunday’s win in Daytona will be the high water mark for the driver of the No. 3 Chevrolet. After winning the Daytona 500 early in the season, Austin Cindric has not been particularly impressive so with that fact combined with his lack of experience in this setting, I believe he will be eliminated after the first round. Also, I don’t believe the three tracks in this round set up particularly well for Daniel Suarez so I am going to predict that he will not make it out of this round.

The one driver who is currently in the bottom four that I am going to predict to get out of the first round is Alex Bowman. He has had a very inconsistent season so far but he does drive for Hendrick Motorsports and his crew chief recently announced that he will step down from that role at the end of the season which will provide extra motivation.

With that in mind, the fourth driver who will have his championship hopes dashed after the first round will be Chase Briscoe. Lack of experience in this role and the lack of consistency of Stewart-Haas Racing lead me to predict his inability to advance.

Michael: I agree on Dillon and Suarez. Dillon hasn’t run that well most of the season. Suarez hasn’t been consistent since winning at Sonoma.

Darlington and Bristol can both be a bit of wild cards as some unusual things could happen at one or both. One of my drivers is Bell. His team has been so inconsistent, especially the pit crew. I can see something dumb happening that keeps him out.

There’s usually one surprise driver that is eliminated in the first round. My surprise elimination is Ross Chastain. Since Hamlin got his “pay back” on Chastain, he’s not been that fiery driver he was to start the season.

Please consider also reading:

Turn 2 Blog: A big race that Jonathan Davenport didn’t win & Hello Tanner English

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