Even with Kurt Busch’s withdrawal from the Playoffs, Ryan Blaney is not guaranteed a spot
The recent announcement by 23XI Racing that Kurt Busch would be surrendering his spot in the NASCAR Playoffs may have reduced some of the anxiety for drivers Ryan Blaney and Martin Truex Jr. going into Saturday’s Coke Zero Sugar 400 at the Daytona International Speedway but it didn’t remove all reason for worry. Those two drivers are the highest ranked in the NASCAR Cup Series standings who do not have a win to date.
With only one spot remaining among the sixteen who will vie for the championship one of those two could be be eliminated from contention following that race.
With Busch’s departure from the Playoffs, there is the possibility that both Blaney and Truex will in fact make the cut. But as we have seen for years on the speedways formerly known as “restrictor plate” tracks, there is no reason to feel assured about anything. Certainly one of the two will make it in but there is a chance that one of them won’t as well.
A win outweighs position in the standings so if any driver who hasn’t already won this season but who is eligible to make the Playoffs scores a victory, then either Blaney or Truex is out. And with the randomness of Daytona winners over the past several years, anything could happen. And more, there is the chance of being caught up in the “Big One” anytime from the waving of the green flag until every car has crossed the finish line for the last time.
That said, no position on the track, nor in the Playoffs for those not locked in, is safe until the full distance has been completed.
Blaney and Truex enter Saturday’s race, obviously, as the most likely to advance. But the reality is that they have everything to lose. After the race, one of them might have to answer all of the “What happened?” questions from their teams and the media. Not advancing will be viewed as a failure on either of their parts.
Martin Truex Jr. could be displaced by a surprise winner
On the other hand, those who come into the event not already locked in with no chance of making it on points have absolutely nothing to lose. They won’t be asked what happened but will instead be praised for heroic efforts and have it pointed out that they came close.
The idea of a driver who is not already guaranteed a place in the NASCAR Playoffs earning his way in by winning in Daytona is not far fetched at all. Not only have competitors outside the bubble such as Michael McDowell, Ricky Stenhouse Jr., Austin Dillon, Erik Jones, Aric Almirola, Justin Haley, Brad Keselowski and Bubba Wallace won NASCAR Cup Series races in the past but they each have won at either Daytona and/or its sister track- Talladega Super Speedway.
And while they might not have ever won on this type of track, the likes of Chris Buescher and Cole Custer have the capability of being the first to the checkered flag on Saturday night.
None of the drivers mentioned above have any chance of making the Playoffs by way of their standings in the points. Taking that into consideration, there is absolutely no reason for them to play it safe in the closing laps of Saturday’s race. To quote Talladega Nights character Ricky Bobby, “If you ain’t first, you’re last” and that is absolutely true in terms of making a post-season run for the title as far as the winless drivers aside from Blaney and Truex are concerned.
And playing it safe might not serve the two drivers who can make it on points either. After all, this is a track in which a competitor can go from running first at the white flag to finishing 25th when the race is over. And if there were to be a surprise winner at the same time the other high runner in points finishes in the top-5, either Blaney or Truex could be answering the “What happened?” question in his post-race talks with the media.
NASCAR scheduled Daytona as the cutoff race for this very reason. It is meant to create drama and it certainly looks like that could very well happen right down to the final lap.
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Richard Allen has been covering NASCAR and other forms of motorsports since 2008.
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