Pack racing keeps everyone in contention at Talladega(Photo: Getty Images)
Anyone who has watched NASCAR Cup Series racing for very long knows that some of the most unpredictable races on the entire schedule are those contested at the Talladega Super Speedway. The threat of the “Big One” that could, on any lap, eliminate or damage half the field in an instant can take favorites out of the race and place unexpected drivers at the front of the field. And more, the draft can favor or discard a driver who looks like a sure winner just yards from the checkered flag.
As a result, there is always the potential for a surprise winner to roll into victory lane at the end of a 500-mile event. That very thing has already happened in the 2021 season when Michael McDowell won the Daytona 500 on Talladega’s sister track in Daytona Beach.
In some seasons the possibility of a surprise winner at Talladega or any other track might not cause significant issues for the sport’s top contenders in terms of the big picture. However, the 2021 season is not behaving like many of its predecessors. After nine races, there have been eight different winners which means there are eight playoff spots already accounted for.
Drivers who win a race during the so-called “regular season” have the inside track toward claiming each of the sixteen places available in the 10-race NASCAR Playoffs that will begin after the 26th event at the Daytona International Speedway. As a result, every time a new driver wins a race, a driver who hasn’t won sees his chances of being among those who will seek a championship reduced.
Consider that more than one-third of the races that will determine who makes the NASCAR Playoffs have been completed. To this point, two-time champion Kyle Busch, defending champion Chase Elliott, former champions Kevin Harvick, Brad Keselowski, and Kurt Busch are among the drivers who have not yet won. Add 2020 playoff entrants Denny Hamlin, Austin Dillon, Matt DiBenedetto, Cole Custer, and Aric Almirola to the list of non-winners during the early part of this season. Also, drivers with top teams such as Chase Briscoe, Tyler Reddick, and Ross Chastain are currently winless in the current campaign.
To save the reader the trouble of counting, there were 13 drivers mentioned in the previous paragraph who are vying for eight remaining playoff positions.
Besides McDowell, drivers Christopher Bell and William Byron have won this season. While both drive for top organizations, neither would have been considered “locks” to make the 2021 playoffs before the season began. And remember, Kyle Larson has already won a race this year likely guaranteeing himself into the playoffs despite not racing most of last year, and obviously, not making the playoffs.
So getting back to the unpredictability of Talladega, there is a real possibility that someone who has not yet won will end his day in victory lane at the Alabama track. And more than that, the winner could potentially be a driver who is well outside the current top-16 in the standings or was not thought of as a pre-season playoff favorite. If so, the pressure will be even further amped up for winless playoff hopefuls.
Ricky Stenhouse, Jr. and Chris Buescher may be inside the top-16 in the current standings but they would each be considered a surprise to still be in those positions after the 26th race. However, Stenhouse has two career Cup Series wins and they came at Daytona and Talladega. Buescher drives for the team Stenhouse won those races with.
Previously mentioned drivers such as Reddick, Briscoe, Almirola, Chastain, and Custer are far enough back in the standings that they are fast approaching “must win” status. A win by any of these drivers pushes one more who is currently inside the top-16 out of the picture.
Bubba Wallace has shown flashes on the big tracks during his career and Daniel Suarez’s new team has shown strength at times. While neither of these drivers will enter this weekend as a favorite to win, a victory by either is not unthinkable.
Ultimately, the point is that Talladega could easily produce an unexpected winner. And in so doing, it could add someone who had not been thought of initially as a playoff contender into the mix. At the same time, those drivers who entered the season looking like playoffs favorites could begin to get nervous about their place in the standings.
Richard Allen is a member of the National Motorsports Press Association
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